Real scenarios. Real public data. See how The Council would have analyzed corporate disasters before they became disasters.
These are not hypotheticals. Each simulation uses publicly available data — SEC filings, earnings calls, news reports, and regulatory documents — that existed before the disaster. We feed this data to The Council and ask: "Would you have approved this decision?"
Q4 2021: SVB Treasury team proposes extending duration on the Held-to-Maturity (HTM) securities portfolio to capture yield in a low-rate environment. The portfolio grows from $49B to $91B in long-dated bonds. No interest rate hedges are purchased.
Rationale: Unhedged duration risk exceeds policy limits. Concentration of uninsured deposits creates liquidity risk that cannot be mitigated by Fed discount window (stigma effect). Recommendation: Cap HTM portfolio at $60B, purchase interest rate swaps, diversify deposit base.
With hedges in place and diversified funding, SVB survives the 2022-2023 rate cycle with ~$800M in hedge gains offsetting HTM losses. No bank run. No FDIC receivership. Estimated value preserved: $16B+ in equity value.
SVB 10-K (2021, 2022), FDIC Call Reports, Federal Reserve H.15 yield curve data, Pitchbook VC funding data, Twitter/X sentiment analysis (March 9-10, 2023).
2015-2016: Boeing engineering team proposes MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to compensate for aerodynamic changes from larger engines. System relies on single Angle of Attack (AOA) sensor. Pilot training classified as "Level B" (iPad course, no simulator time) to maintain 737 type rating compatibility.
Rationale: Single-sensor architecture for flight-critical system violates fundamental safety engineering principles. Pilot training inadequate for system complexity. Recommendation: Dual AOA sensor requirement, disagree light standard, Level D simulator training mandatory.
With dual-sensor architecture and proper training, MCAS performs as designed safety system. No crashes. No 20-month grounding. No $20B in settlements, lost orders, and production delays. 346 lives preserved.
House Transportation Committee Report (2020), JATR Report, Lion Air KNKT Final Report, Ethiopian AIB Report, Boeing internal emails (Congressional exhibits), FAA TARAM safety assessments.
Q2 2019: Institutional investor (pension fund) considers €50M position in Wirecard AG following strong earnings. FT has published allegations of accounting irregularities in Asia operations, but Wirecard denies and threatens legal action. EY has issued clean audits for 10+ years.
Rationale: Unverifiable cash balances in opaque jurisdictions. Margin profile statistically inconsistent with disclosed business model. Aggressive legal posture toward journalists is fraud indicator. Recommendation: Do not invest. If existing position, exit immediately.
Pension fund avoids €50M loss. Portfolio reallocated to diversified fintech ETF. 18 months later, Wirecard stock goes to zero. €50M in beneficiary assets preserved.
Financial Times investigative series (2015-2019), Wirecard AG Annual Reports, EY audit opinions, BaFin regulatory filings, Philippine SEC corporate records, Singapore ACRA filings.
Q3 2014: Family office considers $25M investment in Theranos Series C at $9B valuation. Company claims revolutionary blood testing from finger prick. Board includes Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, James Mattis. Walgreens partnership announced.
Rationale: No independent technical validation. Refusal of due diligence access. Board lacks domain expertise. Recommendation: Pass on investment. Require peer-reviewed validation and FDA clearance before any future consideration.
Family office declines investment. Capital redeployed to validated diagnostics companies (Exact Sciences, Guardant Health). 5 years later, Theranos dissolved, founder convicted. $25M preserved, opportunity cost avoided.
Theranos investor presentations (leaked), CMS inspection reports (2015-2016), FDA warning letters, John Carreyrou WSJ articles (2015), Patent filings (USPTO), Board member disclosures.
Bring us your strategic decision. We'll stress-test it with The Council using your real data — before it becomes a case study for someone else.
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