War Game Simulations
Using only information available at the time — before the outcome was known — we simulate whether structured dissent would have surfaced material risk.
These are not hypotheticals. Each simulation uses publicly available data — SEC filings, earnings calls, news reports, and regulatory documents — that existed before the outcome was known. We feed this data to The Council and ask: "Would structured multi-agent review have surfaced the material risk?"
These simulations do not claim inevitability. They demonstrate whether structured review would have surfaced risk before outcome. Probability assessments are heuristic estimates derived from the simulation, not statistical models.
These simulations are retrospective stress tests, not predictive models. They are designed to evaluate whether material risk signals were present and surfaceable — not to assert that outcomes were certain or preventable.
Silicon Valley Bank Collapse
The Decision Under Analysis
Q4 2021: SVB Treasury team proposes extending duration on the Held-to-Maturity (HTM) securities portfolio to capture yield in a low-rate environment. The portfolio grows from $49B to $91B in long-dated bonds. No interest rate hedges are purchased.
The Council's Analysis
Material Risk Escalation Triggered
Rationale: Unhedged duration risk exceeds policy limits. Concentration of uninsured deposits creates liquidity risk that cannot be mitigated by Fed discount window (stigma effect). Recommendation: Cap HTM portfolio at $60B, purchase interest rate swaps, diversify deposit base.
If Risk Controls Had Been Adopted
With hedges in place and diversified funding, structured risk detection would have identified material duration risk and liquidity concentration before rate cycle stress. The simulation suggests significantly reduced exposure to the conditions that triggered the bank run.
This simulation does not claim the outcome was inevitable — it demonstrates that structured review would have surfaced the risk before outcome.
Public Data Sources Used
SVB 10-K (2021, 2022), FDIC Call Reports, Federal Reserve H.15 yield curve data, Pitchbook VC funding data, Twitter/X sentiment analysis (March 9-10, 2023).
Boeing 737 MAX MCAS Failures
The Decision Under Analysis
2015-2016: Boeing engineering team proposes MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to compensate for aerodynamic changes from larger engines. System relies on single Angle of Attack (AOA) sensor. Pilot training classified as "Level B" (iPad course, no simulator time) to maintain 737 type rating compatibility.
The Council's Analysis
Material Risk Escalation Triggered
Rationale: Single-sensor architecture for flight-critical system violates fundamental safety engineering principles. Pilot training inadequate for system complexity. Recommendation: Dual AOA sensor requirement, disagree light standard, Level D simulator training mandatory.
If Risk Controls Had Been Adopted
With dual-sensor architecture and proper training requirements, the simulation identifies that the single-point-of-failure risk and training gap would have been surfaced during structured review. Established safety engineering principles strongly caution against single-sensor flight-critical architectures.
This simulation does not claim the outcome was inevitable — it demonstrates that structured review would have surfaced the risk before outcome.
Public Data Sources Used
House Transportation Committee Report (2020), JATR Report, Lion Air KNKT Final Report, Ethiopian AIB Report, Boeing internal emails (Congressional exhibits), FAA TARAM safety assessments.
Wirecard Accounting Fraud
The Decision Under Analysis
Q2 2019: Institutional investor (pension fund) considers €50M position in Wirecard AG following strong earnings. FT has published allegations of accounting irregularities in Asia operations, but Wirecard denies and threatens legal action. EY has issued clean audits for 10+ years.
The Council's Analysis
Material Risk Escalation Triggered
Rationale: Unverifiable cash balances in opaque jurisdictions. Margin profile statistically inconsistent with disclosed business model. Aggressive legal posture toward journalists is fraud indicator. Recommendation: Do not invest. If existing position, exit immediately.
If Risk Controls Had Been Adopted
Structured multi-agent review would have identified unverifiable cash balances and margin profile inconsistencies as material red flags, recommending against the investment pending independent verification. The risk was surfaceable from public data alone.
This simulation does not claim the outcome was inevitable — it demonstrates that structured review would have surfaced the risk before outcome.
Public Data Sources Used
Financial Times investigative series (2015-2019), Wirecard AG Annual Reports, EY audit opinions, BaFin regulatory filings, Philippine SEC corporate records, Singapore ACRA filings.
Theranos Investment Due Diligence
The Decision Under Analysis
Q3 2014: Family office considers $25M investment in Theranos Series C at $9B valuation. Company claims revolutionary blood testing from finger prick. Board includes Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, James Mattis. Walgreens partnership announced.
The Council's Analysis
Material Risk Escalation Triggered
Rationale: No independent technical validation. Refusal of due diligence access. Board lacks domain expertise. Recommendation: Pass on investment. Require peer-reviewed validation and FDA clearance before any future consideration.
If Risk Controls Had Been Adopted
Structured review would have flagged the refusal of technical due diligence, absence of peer review, and board composition lacking domain expertise as disqualifying risk factors. The simulation recommends declining the investment pending independent validation.
This simulation does not claim the outcome was inevitable — it demonstrates that structured review would have surfaced the risk before outcome.
Public Data Sources Used
Theranos investor presentations (leaked), CMS inspection reports (2015-2016), FDA warning letters, John Carreyrou WSJ articles (2015), Patent filings (USPTO), Board member disclosures.
Everton FC PSR Breach
The Decision Under Analysis
2021-2022: Everton FC's board approves a series of transfer windows spending over £500M on player acquisitions across 3 years while revenue growth stagnates. Wage-to-revenue ratio climbs from 62% to over 90%. The club reports cumulative losses exceeding the Premier League's Profit & Sustainability Rules (PSR) threshold of £105M over a rolling 3-year period.
The Council's Analysis
Material Risk Escalation Triggered
Rationale: Drift Detection (P5) would have flagged the wage-to-revenue ratio crossing 75% as an early warning. Discovery-Time Proof (P1) would have timestamped when the board was made aware of the PSR breach trajectory. Override Accountability (P3) would have documented every instance where financial constraints were overruled for sporting ambition. Recommendation: Cap transfer spend, restructure wages to performance-linked, conduct quarterly PSR projections.
If Crisis Immunization Had Been In Place
The PSR breach was not a sudden event — it was a drift over 3 transfer windows. Drift Detection would have flagged the trajectory 18 months earlier. Continuity Memory (P4) would have preserved the financial analysis across ownership and management changes. The 10-point deduction was a governance failure, not a financial one — the money was there, the controls were not.
This simulation does not claim the outcome was inevitable — it demonstrates that structured review would have surfaced the risk before outcome.
Public Data Sources Used
Premier League PSR Commission ruling (November 2023), Everton FC Annual Reports (2020-2023), Companies House filings, Transfermarkt squad valuations and fee data, Swiss Ramble financial analysis, Premier League financial reporting requirements.
NHS Maternity Failures (Shrewsbury & Telford)
The Decision Under Analysis
2000-2019: Shrewsbury and Telford Hospital NHS Trust maternity unit repeatedly makes decisions to pursue "natural birth at any cost," overriding clinical safety protocols. Staff who raise concerns are marginalized. Clinical incidents are not formally documented or escalated. The same failure patterns recur across years because institutional memory is not preserved through staff turnover.
The Council's Analysis
Material Risk Escalation Triggered
Rationale: Override Accountability (P3) would have formally documented every deviation from clinical protocols. Continuity Memory (P4) would have preserved incident history through staff turnover, preventing the same failures from recurring. Deliberation Capture (P2) would have ensured dissenting clinical opinions were sealed into the record. Drift Detection (P5) would have flagged declining protocol adherence rates.
If Crisis Immunization Had Been In Place
The Ockenden Report found that the same failures recurred because there was no institutional memory, no protected dissent mechanism, and no systematic tracking of protocol deviations. These are exactly the gaps that the 9 primitives address. Continuity Memory prevents "we didn't know this happened before." Override Accountability prevents "no one documented the protocol deviation." Discovery-Time Proof prevents "we didn't know there was a pattern."
This simulation does not claim the outcome was inevitable — it demonstrates that structured review would have surfaced the risk before outcome.
Public Data Sources Used
Ockenden Report — Final (March 2022), CQC Inspection Reports (2007, 2012, 2018), NHS England Patient Safety Incident Reports, Shrewsbury and Telford Hospital NHS Trust board minutes (public), Healthcare Safety Investigation Branch reports.
Run Your Own War Game
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